What about bad luck, suppose you are a full standard deviation below expected:īlue 65 - 4.4 (but just a few yards short of another upgrade)īlue 210 - 3.13 (but just 2 yards short of another upgrade) So assuming average luck you are bound to find a cooler that will get you there. So, given an average amount of luck, this is how many upgrades you will get:īlue 65 - 6.65 (but just a few yards short of another upgrade)īlue 210 - 4.62 (but just 2 yards short of another upgrade) Also I include the standard deviation for the latter. ![]() of upgrades one can get if one spends everything on the upgrades. ![]() With 3675 footballs, here are the expected yards and the expected no. I figured that we are interested in the best chance to get 6 upgrades - we don't really care about more, and we really want to avoid it being less.
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